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Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

FinalOKC leads series 3-1

Away

Thunder

68-14

128–126

at

Home

Timberwolves

49-33

OKC 57%MIN 43%

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Target Center · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.

MIN favored OKC favored129 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIN50%OKC

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game128–126
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–126
  • Q40.1Julius Randle bad pass (Jalen Williams steals)128–126
  • Q40.1Chet Holmgren enters the game for Jaylin Williams128–126
  • Q40.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of bounds bad pass turnover128–126
  • Q42.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound128–126
  • Q43.1Isaiah Hartenstein enters the game for Kenrich Williams128–126
  • Q43.1Jaylin Williams enters the game for Cason Wallace128–126
  • Q43.1Rudy Gobert enters the game for Naz Reid128–126
  • Q43.1Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker128–126

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q45:38Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)OKC 109 – 106 MIN · MIN 16% → 30% +14
  2. Q44:34Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)OKC 111 – 109 MIN · MIN 18% → 35% +16
  3. Q44:13Alex Caruso makes 1-foot two point shot (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 113 – 109 MIN · OKC 66% → 78% +12
  4. Q43:34Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 116 – 109 MIN · OKC 79% → 92% +12
  5. Q47.0Naz Reid makes free throw 2 of 2OKC 126 – 125 MIN · MIN 2% → 14% +13

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Thunder 57%

LeanHit
OKC 57%MIN 43%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
OKC -3.5
ML OKC -150 / MIN +125
Pre-line forecast
OKC 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
Pick ’em
OKC 51%
Ratings vs. market
−6.8 pts
OKC: Elo 50.7%, market 57.4%
Fair odds
OKC -135
MIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
OKC 111.5 – 108.0 MIN
Posted spread, posted total 219.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorOKCMINWhy
Team rating17221695Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+20+6OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsOKC +5 EloOKC 50.7%
Market-implied ratingsOKC 57.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOKC 57.2%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastOKC 57.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
OKCStatMIN
4th of 30120.0Points scored114.313th of 30
3rd of 30107.5Points allowed109.35th of 30
1st of 30+12.5Margin+5.04th of 30
4th of 30117.7Offense rating114.59th of 30
1st of 30105.4Defense rating109.56th of 30
6th of 30101.8Pace98.924th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 108–22nd of 30
2nd of 3032–8Road vs home25–1612th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Thunder

+20 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Timberwolves

+6 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ThunderTimberwolves
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonOKCMIN
Against the spread62–3548–47
Last 104–67–3
Favorite59–3432–37
Underdog3–116–10
Overs–unders54–4352–43
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

OKC 6–5 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.