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Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

FinalOKC leads series 2-1

Away

Thunder

68-14

101–143

at

Home

Timberwolves

49-33

OKC 57%MIN 43%

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Target Center · ABC

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.

MIN favored OKC favored120 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIN50%OKC

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Timberwolves

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game101–143
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–143
  • Q418.1Jaylen Clark defensive rebound101–143
  • Q421.1Jaylin Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper101–143
  • Q433.2Leonard Miller makes driving layup101–143
  • Q440.2Dillon Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)101–141
  • Q452.0Luka Garza makes 11-foot two point shot98–141
  • Q41:09Ousmane Dieng makes 25-foot three pointer98–139
  • Q41:23Leonard Miller makes two point shot95–139
  • Q41:23Leonard Miller offensive rebound95–137

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q18:34Chet Holmgren makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 7 – 8 MIN · OKC 49% → 55% +6
  2. Q17:39Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)OKC 7 – 11 MIN · MIN 45% → 52% +7
  3. Q16:10Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 9 – 16 MIN · MIN 52% → 58% +7
  4. Q15:12Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)OKC 9 – 21 MIN · MIN 63% → 69% +6
  5. Q13:53Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)OKC 9 – 24 MIN · MIN 70% → 75% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Thunder 57%

LeanMiss
OKC 57%MIN 43%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
OKC -2.5
ML OKC -150 / MIN +125
Pre-line forecast
OKC 68%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OKC -4
OKC 66%
Ratings vs. market
+8.8 pts
OKC: Elo 66.3%, market 57.4%
Fair odds
OKC -135
MIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
OKC 109.5 – 107.0 MIN
Posted spread, posted total 216.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorOKCMINWhy
Team rating17631654Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+47+2OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score)
Elo ratingsOKC +117 EloOKC 66.3%
Market-implied ratingsOKC 68.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOKC 68.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastOKC 57.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
OKCStatMIN
4th of 30120.0Points scored114.313th of 30
3rd of 30107.5Points allowed109.35th of 30
1st of 30+12.5Margin+5.04th of 30
4th of 30117.7Offense rating114.59th of 30
1st of 30105.4Defense rating109.56th of 30
6th of 30101.8Pace98.924th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 108–22nd of 30
2nd of 3032–8Road vs home25–1612th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Thunder

+47 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Timberwolves

+2 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ThunderTimberwolves
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonOKCMIN
Against the spread62–3447–47
Last 104–67–3
Favorite59–3332–37
Underdog3–115–10
Overs–unders53–4351–43
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

OKC 6–4 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.