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New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalIND leads series 2-1

Away

Knicks

51-31

106–100

at

Home

Pacers

50-32

NY 48%IND 52%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · TNT, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored NY favored122 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game106–100
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–100
  • Q40.1Pacers offensive team rebound106–100
  • Q40.1Andrew Nembhard misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot106–100
  • Q42.1Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2106–100
  • Q42.1Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2105–100
  • Q42.1Myles Turner personal take foul104–100
  • Q42.1Josh Hart defensive rebound104–100
  • Q45.1Pascal Siakam misses 29-foot three point jumper104–100
  • Q48.0Miles McBride enters the game for Jalen Brunson104–100

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q48:35Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 84 – 85 IND · NY 30% → 44% +14
  2. Q47:53Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three pointerNY 87 – 88 IND · IND 41% → 56% +15
  3. Q45:10Karl-Anthony Towns makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 94 – 90 IND · NY 56% → 73% +18
  4. Q43:11Tyrese Haliburton makes 17-foot pullup jump shotNY 96 – 94 IND · IND 21% → 35% +13
  5. Q41:17Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (OG Anunoby assists)NY 100 – 98 IND · NY 50% → 74% +24

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Pacers 52%

Toss-upMiss
NY 48%IND 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
IND -1.5
ML NY +100 / IND -120
Pre-line forecast
IND 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -4.5
IND 68%
Ratings vs. market
+16.0 pts
IND: Elo 68.2%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
IND -109
NY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 111.5 – 113.0 IND
Posted spread, posted total 224.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYINDWhy
Team rating15941673Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+5+22NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsIND +132 EloIND 68.2%
Market-implied ratingsIND 51.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastIND 53.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastIND 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatIND
9th of 30115.8Points scored117.47th of 30
9th of 30111.7Points allowed115.117th of 30
8th of 30+4.1Margin+2.212th of 30
5th of 30116.4Offense rating114.87th of 30
13th of 30112.3Defense rating112.615th of 30
26th of 3098.4Pace101.211th of 30
10th of 306–4Last 108–22nd of 30
4th of 3024–17Road vs home29–115th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

+5 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

+22 Elo
  • Isaiah Jackson right achilles tendon surgery−2 Elo

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksPacers
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYIND
Against the spread48–4845–49
Last 105–57–3
Favorite37–3523–33
Underdog11–1322–16
Overs–unders49–4752–42
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 6–9 IND in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.