Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints21
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Max StrusRebounds6
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints21
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- Myles TurnerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–129
- Q47.0shot clock turnover109–129
- Q431.0Jaylon Tyson makes 23-foot three pointer (Chuma Okeke assists)109–129
- Q441.1Tristan Thompson defensive rebound106–129
- Q444.1Ben Sheppard misses 23-foot three point jumper106–129
- Q41:06Isaac Okoro makes 5-foot dunk (Jaylon Tyson assists)106–129
- Q41:10Jarace Walker bad pass (Isaac Okoro steals)104–129
- Q41:20Jarace Walker defensive rebound104–129
- Q41:22Tristan Thompson misses driving layup104–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:49Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 3 – 5 IND · CLE 56% → 62% +6CLE 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q16:16Max Strus makes 27-foot three pointer (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 10 – 16 IND · CLE 46% → 53% +7CLE 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q15:42Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)CLE 10 – 19 IND · IND 48% → 54% +7IND 48% → 54%+7 pts
- Q15:15Obi Toppin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)CLE 10 – 22 IND · IND 55% → 61% +7IND 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q117.0Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)CLE 23 – 38 IND · IND 64% → 70% +6IND 64% → 70%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML CLE -225 / IND +185
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.4%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -197
- IND +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.0 – 112.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1695 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +14 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +59 Elo | CLE 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.9 | Points scored | 117.47th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.5 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 114.87th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–11 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 53–36 | 41–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 47–33 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 56–33 | 50–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–7 IND in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- May 9CLE 126 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Hit
- May 6IND 120 @ CLE 119PlayoffsPicked CLE 67%Miss
- May 4IND 121 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Miss
- Apr 13IND 126 @ CLE 118Picked IND 68%Hit
- Apr 10CLE 112 @ IND 114Picked IND 78%Hit
- Jan 14CLE 127 @ IND 117Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Jan 12IND 108 @ CLE 93Picked CLE 76%Miss
- Apr 12IND 120 @ CLE 129Picked CLE 54%Hit