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Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast

FinalIND leads series 2-0

Away

Pacers

50-32

120–119

at

Home

Cavaliers

64-18

IND 33%CLE 67%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.

CLE favored IND favored134 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4CLE50%IND

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers
Cavaliers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game120–119
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–119
  • Q41.0Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot120–119
  • Q49.1Tyrese Haliburton offensive rebound117–119
  • Q412.1Tyrese Haliburton misses free throw 2 of 2117–119
  • Q412.1Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 2117–119
  • Q412.1Ty Jerome shooting foul116–119
  • Q427.1Max Strus bad pass (Andrew Nembhard steals)116–119
  • Q427.1Donovan Mitchell enters the game for Dean Wade116–119
  • Q427.1Ty Jerome enters the game for Isaac Okoro116–119

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q44:21Max Strus makes 7-foot two point shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)IND 101 – 108 CLE · CLE 84% → 91% +7
  2. Q44:00Myles Turner makes driving layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 103 – 108 CLE · IND 8% → 15% +7
  3. Q43:33Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 106 – 110 CLE · IND 7% → 19% +12
  4. Q43:15Donovan Mitchell makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotIND 106 – 112 CLE · CLE 82% → 91% +9
  5. Q41.0Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 120 – 119 CLE · IND <1% → >99% +100

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Cavaliers 67%

SolidMiss
IND 33%CLE 67%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
CLE -5.5
ML IND +195 / CLE -235
Pre-line forecast
CLE 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -0.5
CLE 53%
Ratings vs. market
−14.9 pts
CLE: Elo 52.5%, market 67.4%
Fair odds
CLE -207
IND +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
IND 110.5 – 116.0 CLE
Posted spread, posted total 226.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDCLEWhy
Team rating16421682Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+24−35IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Missing Evan Mobley −49, Darius Garland −37, De'Andre Hunter −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsCLE +18 EloCLE 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 56.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 56.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCLE 67.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatCLE
7th of 30117.4Points scored121.91st of 30
17th of 30115.1Points allowed112.412th of 30
12th of 30+2.2Margin+9.52nd of 30
7th of 30114.8Offense rating119.61st of 30
15th of 30112.6Defense rating110.28th of 30
11th of 30101.2Pace101.69th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 106–410th of 30
12th of 3020–20Road vs home34–72nd of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+24 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Cavaliers

−35 Elo
  • Evan Mobley sprained ankle−49 Elo
  • Darius Garland sprained toe−37 Elo
  • De'Andre Hunter sprained thumb−9 Elo

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersCavaliers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDCLE
Against the spread40–4852–35
Last 105–56–4
Favorite23–3346–32
Underdog17–156–3
Overs–unders49–3955–32
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 6–3 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.