Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints28
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Aaron NesmithRebounds7
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–117
- Q415.2Jarace Walker makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Tony Bradley assists)101–117
- Q420.0Tony Bradley offensive rebound99–117
- Q422.0Obi Toppin misses 26-foot three point jumper99–117
- Q425.1Tony Bradley offensive rebound99–117
- Q427.0Jarace Walker misses 19-foot pullup jump shot99–117
- Q444.0Jericho Sims makes 1-foot dunk (Kyle Kuzma assists)99–117
- Q457.0Obi Toppin out of bounds bad pass turnover99–115
- Q41:09Thomas Bryant defensive rebound99–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:31Gary Trent Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)IND 59 – 52 MIL · MIL 31% → 39% +8MIL 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q38:56Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)IND 61 – 57 MIL · MIL 38% → 47% +9MIL 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q38:07Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point shotIND 62 – 62 MIL · MIL 50% → 59% +10MIL 50% → 59%+10 pts
- Q36:16Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)IND 66 – 69 MIL · MIL 59% → 68% +9MIL 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q36:03Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 69 – 69 MIL · IND 32% → 41% +10IND 32% → 41%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -4.5
- ML IND +170 / MIL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -180
- IND +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.0 – 116.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1614 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +56 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +26 Elo | MIL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 52.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 115.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 112.713th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 114.111th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–46 | 45–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–32 | 28–27 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders | 46–38 | 44–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 11–6 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.
- Apr 22MIL 115 @ IND 123PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit
- Apr 19MIL 98 @ IND 117PlayoffsPicked IND 67%Hit
- Mar 15IND 119 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 59%Hit
- Mar 11MIL 114 @ IND 115Picked IND 54%Hit
- Dec 31MIL 120 @ IND 112Picked MIL 54%Hit
- Nov 22IND 117 @ MIL 129Picked MIL 66%Hit
- May 2MIL 98 @ IND 120PlayoffsPicked IND 64%Hit
- Apr 30IND 92 @ MIL 115PlayoffsPicked IND 69%Miss