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Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalIND leads series 1-0

Away

Bucks

48-34

98–117

at

Home

Pacers

50-32

MIL 33%IND 67%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · ESPN, FanDuel SN WI, FanDuel SN IN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored MIL favored116 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%MIL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game98–117
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–117
  • Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound98–117
  • Q40.1Andre Jackson Jr. misses 56-foot three point jumper98–117
  • Q40.1shot clock turnover98–117
  • Q425.0Pat Connaughton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)98–117
  • Q426.1Bucks offensive team rebound95–117
  • Q426.1Jarace Walker blocks Ryan Rollins 's 5-foot driving layup95–117
  • Q438.0Chris Livingston defensive rebound95–117
  • Q439.0T.J. McConnell misses free throw 2 of 295–117

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q111:43Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)MIL 0 – 3 IND · IND 67% → 73% +5
  2. Q18:50Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIL 8 – 10 IND · IND 65% → 71% +6
  3. Q17:52Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIL 8 – 15 IND · IND 74% → 79% +5
  4. Q17:36Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)MIL 11 – 15 IND · MIL 21% → 26% +5
  5. Q12:06Pascal Siakam makes 27-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)MIL 19 – 30 IND · IND 81% → 85% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Pacers 67%

SolidHit
MIL 33%IND 67%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
IND -6.5
ML MIL +195 / IND -230
Pre-line forecast
IND 66%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -1.5
IND 56%
Ratings vs. market
−11.5 pts
IND: Elo 55.8%, market 67.3%
Fair odds
IND -206
MIL +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 110.5 – 117.0 IND
Posted spread, posted total 227.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILINDWhy
Team rating15941593Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+19+13MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Travel−12—MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsIND +41 EloIND 55.8%
Market-implied ratingsIND 66.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastIND 65.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastIND 67.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatIND
12th of 30115.3Points scored117.47th of 30
13th of 30112.7Points allowed115.117th of 30
11th of 30+2.6Margin+2.212th of 30
11th of 30114.1Offense rating114.87th of 30
11th of 30111.5Defense rating112.615th of 30
17th of 30100.6Pace101.211th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 108–22nd of 30
12th of 3020–20Road vs home29–115th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Bucks

+19 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

+13 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BucksPacers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILIND
Against the spread45–3836–46
Last 107–34–6
Favorite28–2721–32
Underdog17–1115–14
Overs–unders43–4045–37
Overs–unders, last 108–27–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 6–9 IND in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.