Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints34
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds18
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–123
- Q414.0Pacers defensive team rebound115–123
- Q417.1Damian Lillard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot115–123
- Q423.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 2 of 2115–123
- Q423.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 1 of 2115–122
- Q423.1Kyle Kuzma personal take foul115–121
- Q426.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 2-foot driving dunk115–121
- Q432.1Bucks defensive team rebound113–121
- Q433.1Bobby Portis blocks Pascal Siakam 's 4-foot driving layup113–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:17Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 54 – 60 IND · MIL 20% → 26% +6MIL 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q311:48Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MIL 60 – 71 IND · IND 79% → 85% +6IND 79% → 85%+6 pts
- Q43:27Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 110 – 115 IND · MIL 5% → 15% +10MIL 5% → 15%+10 pts
- Q42:33Damian Lillard makes 30-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 113 – 115 IND · MIL 12% → 30% +19MIL 12% → 30%+19 pts
- Q42:05Pascal Siakam makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)MIL 113 – 118 IND · IND 71% → 90% +19IND 71% → 90%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML MIL +150 / IND -175
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- IND 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- IND: Elo 53.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -159
- MIL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.0 – 116.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | +19 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +27 Elo | IND 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 61.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 117.47th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 114.87th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–39 | 37–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–27 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 43–41 | 45–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–10 IND in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.
- Apr 19MIL 98 @ IND 117PlayoffsPicked IND 67%Hit
- Mar 15IND 119 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 59%Hit
- Mar 11MIL 114 @ IND 115Picked IND 54%Hit
- Dec 31MIL 120 @ IND 112Picked MIL 54%Hit
- Nov 22IND 117 @ MIL 129Picked MIL 66%Hit
- May 2MIL 98 @ IND 120PlayoffsPicked IND 64%Hit
- Apr 30IND 92 @ MIL 115PlayoffsPicked IND 69%Miss
- Apr 28MIL 113 @ IND 126PlayoffsPicked IND 76%Hit