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Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

Final/OTIND wins series 4-1

Away

Bucks

48-34

118–119

at

Home

Pacers

50-32

MIL 24%IND 76%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · NBA TV, FanDuel SN IN, FanDuel SN WI

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored MIL favored122 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4OTIND50%MIL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers

Last plays

  • OT0.0End of Game118–119
  • OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime118–119
  • OT0.0Bucks offensive team rebound118–119
  • OT0.0Gary Trent Jr. misses 62-foot three point pullup jump shot118–119
  • OT1.1Tyrese Haliburton makes driving layup118–119
  • OT10.1Pascal Siakam enters the game for Jarace Walker118–117
  • OT10.1Gary Trent Jr. out of bounds lost ball turnover118–117
  • OT17.0Bucks Full timeout118–117
  • OT17.0Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 1118–117
  • OT17.0AJ Green shooting foul118–116

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q41:58Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 98 – 97 IND · MIL 26% → 55% +29
  2. Q41:20AJ Green makes 25-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 101 – 97 IND · MIL 58% → 87% +29
  3. Q410.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 2-foot driving dunkMIL 103 – 103 IND · IND 4% → 52% +47
  4. OT1:08Gary Trent Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 115 – 111 IND · MIL 59% → 89% +30
  5. OT1.1Tyrese Haliburton makes driving layupMIL 118 – 119 IND · IND <1% → >99% +99

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Pacers 76%

StrongHit
MIL 24%IND 76%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
IND -7.5
ML MIL +295 / IND -370
Pre-line forecast
IND 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -4
IND 65%
Ratings vs. market
−10.6 pts
IND: Elo 65.0%, market 75.7%
Fair odds
IND -311
MIL +311 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 107.0 – 114.5 IND
Posted spread, posted total 221.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILINDWhy
Team rating15611626Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+8+16MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Travel−12−12MIL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsIND +108 EloIND 65.0%
Market-implied ratingsIND 59.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastIND 60.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastIND 75.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatIND
12th of 30115.3Points scored117.47th of 30
13th of 30112.7Points allowed115.117th of 30
11th of 30+2.6Margin+2.212th of 30
11th of 30114.1Offense rating114.87th of 30
11th of 30111.5Defense rating112.615th of 30
17th of 30100.6Pace101.211th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 108–22nd of 30
12th of 3020–20Road vs home29–115th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Bucks

+8 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

+16 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BucksPacers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILIND
Against the spread46–4139–47
Last 106–46–4
Favorite29–2823–32
Underdog17–1316–15
Overs–unders45–4247–39
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 7–12 IND in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.