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Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast

FinalIND leads series 3-1

Away

Pacers

50-32

129–103

at

Home

Bucks

48-34

IND 38%MIL 62%

You didn't pick this one.

Fiserv Forum · TNT, HBO Max, FanDuel SN WI, FanDuel SN IN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.

MIL favored IND favored112 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIL50%IND

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game129–103
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–103
  • Q41.0Thomas Bryant defensive rebound129–103
  • Q45.1Chris Livingston misses 26-foot three point jumper129–103
  • Q414.1shot clock turnover129–103
  • Q438.0Tony Bradley defensive rebound129–103
  • Q442.0Pat Connaughton misses 24-foot three point jumper129–103
  • Q454.0T.J. McConnell makes 9-foot pullup jump shot129–103
  • Q41:16Johnny Furphy defensive rebound127–103
  • Q41:18Thomas Bryant blocks Ryan Rollins 's 6-foot two point shot127–103

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q26:42Kevin Porter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)IND 45 – 38 MIL · MIL 34% → 41% +7
  2. Q26:32Andrew Nembhard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 48 – 38 MIL · IND 59% → 66% +7
  3. Q22:49Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 58 – 47 MIL · IND 63% → 71% +8
  4. Q32:54Bobby Portis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)IND 88 – 79 MIL · MIL 17% → 25% +8
  5. Q32:12Obi Toppin makes 22-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 93 – 81 MIL · IND 76% → 84% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Bucks 62%

LeanMiss
IND 38%MIL 62%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
MIL -4.5
ML IND +150 / MIL -180
Pre-line forecast
MIL 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL -2
MIL 58%
Ratings vs. market
−3.8 pts
MIL: Elo 57.9%, market 61.6%
Fair odds
MIL -161
IND +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
IND 111.0 – 115.5 MIL
Posted spread, posted total 226.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDMILWhy
Team rating16021585Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+20+55IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsMIL +55 EloMIL 57.9%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 55.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 56.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIL 61.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatMIL
7th of 30117.4Points scored115.312th of 30
17th of 30115.1Points allowed112.713th of 30
12th of 30+2.2Margin+2.611th of 30
7th of 30114.8Offense rating114.111th of 30
15th of 30112.6Defense rating111.511th of 30
11th of 30101.2Pace100.617th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 108–22nd of 30
12th of 3020–20Road vs home27–148th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+20 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Bucks

+55 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersBucks
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDMIL
Against the spread38–4746–40
Last 105–57–3
Favorite23–3229–27
Underdog15–1517–13
Overs–unders46–3944–42
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 11–7 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.