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Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast

FinalCLE wins series 4-0

Away

Cavaliers

64-18

138–83

at

Home

Heat

37-45

CLE 74%MIA 26%

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Kaseya Center · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, FanDuel SN Sun, FanDuel SN OH

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.

MIA favored CLE favored110 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIA50%CLE

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cavaliers
Heat

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game138–83
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–83
  • Q414.2shot clock turnover138–83
  • Q438.2Pelle Larsson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)138–83
  • Q441.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound138–80
  • Q443.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point shot138–80
  • Q443.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound138–80
  • Q446.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses driving layup138–80
  • Q452.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound138–80
  • Q454.2Chuma Okeke misses 28-foot three point jumper138–80

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q111:44Jarrett Allen makes dunkCLE 2 – 0 MIA · CLE 74% → 77% +3
  2. Q111:02Tyler Herro makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 2 – 3 MIA · MIA 23% → 28% +5
  3. Q110:42Donovan Mitchell makes 21-foot jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 4 – 3 MIA · CLE 72% → 75% +3
  4. Q110:16Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 7 – 3 MIA · CLE 75% → 80% +5
  5. Q19:50Sam Merrill makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 10 – 3 MIA · CLE 80% → 84% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Cavaliers 74%

StrongHit
CLE 74%MIA 26%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
CLE -8.5
ML CLE -340 / MIA +270
Pre-line forecast
CLE 73%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -6.5
CLE 74%
Ratings vs. market
−0.1 pts
CLE: Elo 74.0%, market 74.1%
Fair odds
CLE -286
MIA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CLE 110.0 – 101.5 MIA
Posted spread, posted total 211.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLEMIAWhy
Team rating16801475Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+9−3CLE: Missing Darius Garland −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Usual rotation (from the box score)
Elo ratingsCLE +181 EloCLE 74.0%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 73.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 73.2%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCLE 74.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatMIA
1st of 30121.9Points scored110.624th of 30
12th of 30112.4Points allowed110.07th of 30
2nd of 30+9.5Margin+0.615th of 30
1st of 30119.6Offense rating112.121st of 30
8th of 30110.2Defense rating111.512th of 30
9th of 30101.6Pace97.430th of 30
10th of 306–4Last 106–410th of 30
3rd of 3030–11Road vs home19–2222nd of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Cavaliers

+9 Elo
  • Darius Garland left toe−22 Elo

Heat

−3 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CavaliersHeat
140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLEMIA
Against the spread51–3439–46
Last 106–45–5
Favorite45–3121–24
Underdog6–318–22
Overs–unders53–3246–39
Overs–unders, last 104–68–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.