Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Ty JeromeAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–112
- Q48.1shot clock turnover121–112
- Q421.0Aaron Nesmith offensive rebound121–112
- Q424.1Aaron Nesmith misses free throw 2 of 2121–112
- Q424.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 1 of 2121–112
- Q424.1Evan Mobley personal foul120–112
- Q425.0Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound120–112
- Q426.2Ty Jerome misses free throw 2 of 2120–112
- Q426.2Ty Jerome makes free throw 1 of 2120–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:39Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)IND 96 – 95 CLE · CLE 44% → 58% +14CLE 44% → 58%+14 pts
- Q47:26Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 101 – 99 CLE · IND 34% → 49% +15IND 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q46:21Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 104 – 102 CLE · IND 34% → 51% +17IND 34% → 51%+17 pts
- Q45:41Andrew Nembhard makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 107 – 102 CLE · IND 52% → 70% +17IND 52% → 70%+17 pts
- Q44:34Andrew Nembhard makes 30-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 110 – 104 CLE · IND 61% → 79% +17IND 61% → 79%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML IND +300 / CLE -400
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 63.3%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -320
- IND +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 110.0 – 118.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1628 | 1696 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +12 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Missing Darius Garland −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +95 Elo | CLE 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 121.91st of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +9.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 34–72nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+12 Elo- Darius Garland left great toe hyperextension−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–48 | 52–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–33 | 46–31 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 48–39 | 54–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–3 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Apr 13IND 126 @ CLE 118Picked IND 68%Hit
- Apr 10CLE 112 @ IND 114Picked IND 78%Hit
- Jan 14CLE 127 @ IND 117Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Jan 12IND 108 @ CLE 93Picked CLE 76%Miss
- Apr 12IND 120 @ CLE 129Picked CLE 54%Hit
- Mar 18CLE 108 @ IND 103Picked IND 62%Miss
- Nov 3CLE 116 @ IND 121Picked IND 59%Hit
- Oct 28IND 125 @ CLE 113Picked IND 58%Hit