Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints43
- Max StrusAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints23
- T.J. McConnellAssists7
- Aaron NesmithRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–104
- Q417.1Javonte Green defensive rebound126–104
- Q419.1Jarace Walker misses 8-foot two point shot126–104
- Q428.1Johnny Furphy defensive rebound126–104
- Q431.0Ty Jerome misses 25-foot three point shot126–104
- Q437.1Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound126–104
- Q440.1Jarace Walker misses 27-foot three point jumper126–104
- Q448.1Craig Porter Jr. makes driving layup126–104
- Q41:07Javonte Green defensive rebound124–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:49Max Strus makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 3 – 0 IND · CLE 66% → 71% +6CLE 66% → 71%+6 pts
- Q13:38Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)CLE 28 – 20 IND · CLE 74% → 80% +5CLE 74% → 80%+5 pts
- Q147.1Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Pascal Siakam assists)CLE 32 – 29 IND · IND 24% → 30% +6IND 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q12.1Ben Sheppard makes 27-foot three point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)CLE 32 – 32 IND · IND 30% → 36% +7IND 30% → 36%+7 pts
- Q29:32Max Strus makes 24-foot three pointer (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 41 – 36 IND · CLE 68% → 74% +6CLE 68% → 74%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML CLE -220 / IND +180
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.4%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -192
- IND +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.5 – 113.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1678 | 1646 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +25 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +10 Elo | CLE 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.9 | Points scored | 117.47th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.5 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 114.87th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–11 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 52–36 | 41–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 46–33 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 56–32 | 50–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–7 IND in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- May 6IND 120 @ CLE 119PlayoffsPicked CLE 67%Miss
- May 4IND 121 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Miss
- Apr 13IND 126 @ CLE 118Picked IND 68%Hit
- Apr 10CLE 112 @ IND 114Picked IND 78%Hit
- Jan 14CLE 127 @ IND 117Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Jan 12IND 108 @ CLE 93Picked CLE 76%Miss
- Apr 12IND 120 @ CLE 129Picked CLE 54%Hit
- Mar 18CLE 108 @ IND 103Picked IND 62%Miss