Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints31
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Aaron NesmithRebounds13
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- Darius GarlandAssists3
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–105
- Q413.2Pascal Siakam defensive rebound114–105
- Q416.1Max Strus misses 23-foot three point shot114–105
- Q417.1Max Strus offensive rebound114–105
- Q419.1Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper114–105
- Q423.0Obi Toppin enters the game for Myles Turner114–105
- Q423.0Cavaliers Full timeout114–105
- Q423.1Myles Turner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)114–105
- Q441.1Tyrese Haliburton defensive rebound111–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:59Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 94 – 88 CLE · IND 56% → 70% +14IND 56% → 70%+14 pts
- Q46:53Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Evan Mobley assists)IND 96 – 94 CLE · CLE 32% → 48% +16CLE 32% → 48%+16 pts
- Q45:03Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointer (Ty Jerome assists)IND 98 – 97 CLE · CLE 33% → 51% +19CLE 33% → 51%+19 pts
- Q44:39Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 101 – 97 CLE · IND 49% → 69% +19IND 49% → 69%+19 pts
- Q41:27Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point shot (Max Strus assists)IND 106 – 103 CLE · CLE 5% → 21% +17CLE 5% → 21%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML IND +250 / CLE -310
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.2%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -265
- IND +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 111.0 – 119.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1649 | 1675 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +32 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +87 Elo | CLE 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 121.91st of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +9.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 34–72nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–49 | 53–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–33 | 47–34 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 51–40 | 57–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 8–4 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- May 11CLE 109 @ IND 129PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Miss
- May 9CLE 126 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Hit
- May 6IND 120 @ CLE 119PlayoffsPicked CLE 67%Miss
- May 4IND 121 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Miss
- Apr 13IND 126 @ CLE 118Picked IND 68%Hit
- Apr 10CLE 112 @ IND 114Picked IND 78%Hit
- Jan 14CLE 127 @ IND 117Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Jan 12IND 108 @ CLE 93Picked CLE 76%Miss