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Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

FinalIND leads series 2-0

Away

Pacers

50-32

114–109

at

Home

Knicks

51-31

IND 32%NY 68%

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Madison Square Garden · TNT, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored IND favored116 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4NY50%IND

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers
Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game114–109
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–109
  • Q40.0Pascal Siakam defensive rebound114–109
  • Q40.2Jalen Brunson misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot114–109
  • Q44.0Obi Toppin enters the game for Myles Turner114–109
  • Q44.0Knicks Full timeout114–109
  • Q44.0Myles Turner makes free throw 2 of 2114–109
  • Q44.0Myles Turner makes free throw 1 of 2113–109
  • Q44.0Mikal Bridges personal foul112–109
  • Q44.0Myles Turner defensive rebound112–109

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q49:59Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 91 – 85 NY · IND 55% → 68% +13
  2. Q44:25Myles Turner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 103 – 97 NY · IND 65% → 81% +17
  3. Q43:50Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three pointerIND 106 – 99 NY · IND 73% → 88% +15
  4. Q414.2Josh Hart makes 2-foot layup (Jalen Brunson assists)IND 110 – 109 NY · NY 1% → 24% +23
  5. Q414.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 1 of 2IND 111 – 109 NY · IND 76% → 93% +17

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 68%

SolidMiss
IND 32%NY 68%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
NY -5.5
ML IND +200 / NY -245
Pre-line forecast
NY 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -1.5
NY 44%
Ratings vs. market
−24.4 pts
NY: Elo 43.7%, market 68.1%
Fair odds
NY -213
IND +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
IND 109.0 – 114.5 NY
Posted spread, posted total 223.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDNYWhy
Team rating16671600Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+20+7IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsIND +44 EloIND 56.3%
Market-implied ratingsNY 55.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 54.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 68.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatNY
7th of 30117.4Points scored115.89th of 30
17th of 30115.1Points allowed111.79th of 30
12th of 30+2.2Margin+4.18th of 30
7th of 30114.8Offense rating116.45th of 30
15th of 30112.6Defense rating112.313th of 30
11th of 30101.2Pace98.426th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 106–410th of 30
12th of 3020–20Road vs home27–148th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+20 Elo
  • Isaiah Jackson torn right achilles tendon−3 Elo

Knicks

+7 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersKnicks
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDNY
Against the spread44–4948–47
Last 107–36–4
Favorite23–3337–34
Underdog21–1611–13
Overs–unders52–4149–46
Overs–unders, last 107–35–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 8–6 NY in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.