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Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

Final/OTIND leads series 1-0

Away

Pacers

50-32

138–135

at

Home

Knicks

51-31

IND 38%NY 62%

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Madison Square Garden · TNT, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored IND favored148 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4OTNY50%IND

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers
Knicks

Last plays

  • OT0.0End of Game138–135
  • OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime138–135
  • OT0.0Tyrese Haliburton bad pass (Karl-Anthony Towns steals)138–135
  • OT0.0Tyrese Haliburton enters the game for Ben Sheppard138–135
  • OT0.0Miles McBride enters the game for Jalen Brunson138–135
  • OT0.0Pacers Full timeout138–135
  • OT0.0Mikal Bridges out of bounds lost ball turnover138–135
  • OT3.0Mikal Bridges offensive rebound138–135
  • OT6.1Karl-Anthony Towns misses 29-foot three point jumper138–135
  • OT8.1Josh Hart offensive rebound138–135

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q40.0Tyrese Haliburton makes 23-foot step back jumpshotIND 125 – 125 NY · IND 0% → 46% +46
  2. OT1:22Tyrese Haliburton makes driving layupIND 132 – 131 NY · IND 36% → 60% +24
  3. OT54.0Obi Toppin makes 3-foot dunkIND 134 – 133 NY · IND 34% → 63% +30
  4. OT35.2Jalen Brunson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotIND 134 – 135 NY · NY 33% → 69% +36
  5. OT26.1Andrew Nembhard makes 2-foot layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 136 – 135 NY · IND 28% → 70% +42

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 62%

SolidMiss
IND 38%NY 62%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
NY -4.5
ML IND +155 / NY -185
Pre-line forecast
NY 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -1
NY 46%
Ratings vs. market
−16.3 pts
NY: Elo 46.1%, market 62.3%
Fair odds
NY -166
IND +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
IND 108.5 – 113.0 NY
Posted spread, posted total 221.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDNYWhy
Team rating16621605Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+14+7IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsIND +28 EloIND 53.9%
Market-implied ratingsNY 55.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 54.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 62.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatNY
7th of 30117.4Points scored115.89th of 30
17th of 30115.1Points allowed111.79th of 30
12th of 30+2.2Margin+4.18th of 30
7th of 30114.8Offense rating116.45th of 30
15th of 30112.6Defense rating112.313th of 30
11th of 30101.2Pace98.426th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 106–410th of 30
12th of 3020–20Road vs home27–148th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+14 Elo
  • Isaiah Jackson achilles−3 Elo

Knicks

+7 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersKnicks
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDNY
Against the spread43–4948–46
Last 107–37–3
Favorite23–3337–33
Underdog20–1611–13
Overs–unders51–4148–46
Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 7–6 NY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.