Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints24
- Julius RandleAssists3
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds6
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–124
- Q44.1Josh Minott makes 24-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)94–124
- Q49.0shot clock turnover91–124
- Q433.1Rob Dillingham makes two point shot91–124
- Q438.1Rob Dillingham defensive rebound89–124
- Q441.0Ousmane Dieng misses 23-foot three point jumper89–124
- Q457.1Rob Dillingham makes 14-foot step back jumpshot89–124
- Q41:04Ajay Mitchell makes 2-foot two point shot (Jaylin Williams assists)87–124
- Q41:12Terrence Shannon Jr. bad pass (Jaylin Williams steals)87–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:35Julius Randle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 3 – 0 OKC · MIN 25% → 31% +5MIN 25% → 31%+5 pts
- Q19:42Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 3 – 3 OKC · OKC 69% → 74% +5OKC 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q19:17Chet Holmgren makes dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 3 – 5 OKC · OKC 74% → 78% +3OKC 74% → 78%+3 pts
- Q18:51Isaiah Hartenstein makes alley oop layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 3 – 7 OKC · OKC 77% → 81% +3OKC 77% → 81%+3 pts
- Q18:01Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 2-foot two point shot (Jalen Williams assists)MIN 3 – 9 OKC · OKC 80% → 83% +3OKC 80% → 83%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML MIN +280 / OKC -360
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- OKC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 62.6%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -297
- MIN +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 106.5 – 115.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1690 | 1727 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | +23 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +90 Elo | OKC 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–47 | 62–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–37 | 59–35 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 53–43 | 55–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–7 OKC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- May 26OKC 128 @ MIN 126PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Hit
- May 24OKC 101 @ MIN 143PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Miss
- May 22MIN 103 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 74%Hit
- May 20MIN 88 @ OKC 114PlayoffsPicked OKC 71%Hit
- Feb 24MIN 131 @ OKC 128Picked OKC 83%Miss
- Feb 23OKC 130 @ MIN 123Picked OKC 75%Hit
- Feb 13OKC 101 @ MIN 116Picked OKC 78%Miss
- Dec 31MIN 105 @ OKC 113Picked OKC 69%Hit