Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints19
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists6
- Aaron NesmithRebounds12
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints38
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–110
- Q40.1Pacers Full timeout111–110
- Q40.1Myles Turner enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton111–110
- Q40.1Chet Holmgren enters the game for Luguentz Dort111–110
- Q40.1Thunder Full timeout111–110
- Q40.3Tyrese Haliburton makes 21-foot pullup jump shot111–110
- Q46.2Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound109–110
- Q411.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 14-foot two point shot109–110
- Q422.1(00:22.5) [Pacers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Pacers] charged with a timeout109–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:16Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 94 – 98 OKC · IND 9% → 19% +9IND 9% → 19%+9 pts
- Q41:59Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 105 – 108 OKC · IND 4% → 17% +13IND 4% → 17%+13 pts
- Q41:27Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point shotIND 105 – 110 OKC · OKC 85% → 95% +10OKC 85% → 95%+10 pts
- Q448.1Pascal Siakam makes two point shotIND 109 – 110 OKC · IND 9% → 30% +21IND 9% → 30%+21 pts
- Q40.3Tyrese Haliburton makes 21-foot pullup jump shotIND 111 – 110 OKC · IND <1% → >99% +100IND <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML IND +375 / OKC -500
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 67.2%, market 79.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -396
- IND +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 109.5 – 120.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1660 | 1742 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +22 | IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +124 Elo | OKC 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 75.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 79.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+15 Elo- Isaiah Jackson torn right achilles tendon−3 Elo
Thunder
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–51 | 63–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 60–35 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 54–44 | 55–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–2 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.