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Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

FinalIND leads series 3-2

Away

Pacers

50-32

94–111

at

Home

Knicks

51-31

IND 37%NY 63%

You didn't pick this one.

Madison Square Garden · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored IND favored113 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4NY50%IND

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game94–111
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–111
  • Q413.1Andrew Nembhard makes two point shot94–111
  • Q419.1Ariel Hukporti makes 1-foot dunk (Miles McBride assists)92–111
  • Q440.0Ben Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 292–109
  • Q440.0Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Josh Hart91–109
  • Q440.0Ben Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 291–109
  • Q440.0Miles McBride personal take foul90–109
  • Q441.1Ben Sheppard defensive rebound90–109
  • Q442.2Josh Hart misses free throw 2 of 290–109

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q15:47Karl-Anthony Towns makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)IND 11 – 15 NY · NY 64% → 70% +6
  2. Q28:45Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 32 – 34 NY · IND 28% → 34% +7
  3. Q28:17Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)IND 32 – 37 NY · NY 66% → 72% +7
  4. Q26:16Landry Shamet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)IND 34 – 43 NY · NY 74% → 80% +6
  5. Q21:24Bennedict Mathurin makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 45 – 52 NY · IND 17% → 23% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 63%

SolidHit
IND 37%NY 63%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
NY -4.5
ML IND +160 / NY -190
Pre-line forecast
NY 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -2
NY 42%
Ratings vs. market
−21.3 pts
NY: Elo 41.7%, market 63.0%
Fair odds
NY -170
IND +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
IND 109.0 – 113.5 NY
Posted spread, posted total 222.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDNYWhy
Team rating16671600Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+24−3IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Usual rotation (from the box score)
Elo ratingsIND +58 EloIND 58.3%
Market-implied ratingsNY 54.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 53.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 63.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatNY
7th of 30117.4Points scored115.89th of 30
17th of 30115.1Points allowed111.79th of 30
12th of 30+2.2Margin+4.18th of 30
7th of 30114.8Offense rating116.45th of 30
15th of 30112.6Defense rating112.313th of 30
11th of 30101.2Pace98.426th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 106–410th of 30
12th of 3020–20Road vs home27–148th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+24 Elo
  • Isaiah Jackson torn right achilles tendon−1 Elo

Knicks

−3 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersKnicks
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDNY
Against the spread46–5049–49
Last 107–35–5
Favorite24–3437–35
Underdog22–1612–14
Overs–unders53–4350–48
Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 10–7 NY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.