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New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalIND leads series 3-1

Away

Knicks

51-31

121–130

at

Home

Pacers

50-32

NY 42%IND 58%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored NY favored143 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game121–130
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–130
  • Q43.0Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound121–130
  • Q43.0Landry Shamet misses 22-foot jumper121–130
  • Q46.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2121–130
  • Q46.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2121–129
  • Q46.1Mikal Bridges personal take foul121–128
  • Q48.1Mikal Bridges makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)121–128
  • Q412.1Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound118–128
  • Q414.0Bennedict Mathurin misses free throw 2 of 2118–128

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q25:33Tyrese Haliburton makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotNY 52 – 54 IND · IND 54% → 61% +8
  2. Q22:03Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 61 – 63 IND · IND 53% → 61% +8
  3. Q355.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 29-foot three pointer (Obi Toppin assists)NY 89 – 99 IND · IND 79% → 87% +8
  4. Q44:11Pascal Siakam makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)NY 109 – 118 IND · IND 87% → 95% +8
  5. Q43:51Mikal Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 112 – 118 IND · NY 4% → 12% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Pacers 58%

LeanHit
NY 42%IND 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
IND -3.5
ML NY +130 / IND -150
Pre-line forecast
IND 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -4
IND 65%
Ratings vs. market
+7.5 pts
IND: Elo 65.5%, market 58.0%
Fair odds
IND -138
NY +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 107.5 – 111.0 IND
Posted spread, posted total 218.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYINDWhy
Team rating16061661Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups0+19NY: Usual rotation · IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsIND +111 EloIND 65.5%
Market-implied ratingsIND 50.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastIND 52.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastIND 58.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatIND
9th of 30115.8Points scored117.47th of 30
9th of 30111.7Points allowed115.117th of 30
8th of 30+4.1Margin+2.212th of 30
5th of 30116.4Offense rating114.87th of 30
13th of 30112.3Defense rating112.615th of 30
26th of 3098.4Pace101.211th of 30
10th of 306–4Last 108–22nd of 30
4th of 3024–17Road vs home29–115th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

0 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

+19 Elo
  • Isaiah Jackson torn right achilles tendon−2 Elo

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksPacers
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYIND
Against the spread49–4845–50
Last 106–47–3
Favorite37–3523–34
Underdog12–1322–16
Overs–unders49–4852–43
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 7–9 IND in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.