New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints24
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints31
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Tyrese HaliburtonRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–125
- Q49.1Landry Shamet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)108–125
- Q422.1shot clock turnover105–125
- Q445.1Thomas Bryant defensive rebound105–125
- Q447.0James Johnson enters the game for Andrew Nembhard105–125
- Q447.0Ariel Hukporti misses free throw 2 of 2105–125
- Q447.0Bennedict Mathurin enters the game for Pascal Siakam105–125
- Q447.0T.J. McConnell enters the game for Ben Sheppard105–125
- Q447.0Johnny Furphy enters the game for Obi Toppin105–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:52Thomas Bryant makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)NY 22 – 23 IND · IND 55% → 62% +7IND 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q211:17Landry Shamet makes 22-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 27 – 28 IND · NY 32% → 38% +7NY 32% → 38%+7 pts
- Q28:52Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)NY 33 – 36 IND · IND 59% → 66% +7IND 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q230.1Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 52 – 56 IND · IND 61% → 69% +8IND 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q311:38Pascal Siakam makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 54 – 61 IND · IND 69% → 76% +7IND 69% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML NY +145 / IND -170
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3
- IND 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- IND: Elo 61.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- IND -154
- NY +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 109.5 – 113.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1650 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +9 | NY: Usual rotation · IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +80 Elo | IND 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 117.47th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 114.87th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+9 Elo- Isaiah Jackson torn right achilles tendon−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–49 | 46–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 38–35 | 24–34 |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders | 50–49 | 53–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 8–10 IND in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.
- May 29IND 94 @ NY 111PlayoffsPicked NY 63%Hit
- May 27NY 121 @ IND 130PlayoffsPicked IND 58%Hit
- May 25NY 106 @ IND 100PlayoffsPicked IND 52%Miss
- May 23IND 114 @ NY 109PlayoffsPicked NY 68%Miss
- May 21IND 138 @ NY 135PlayoffsPicked NY 62%Miss
- Feb 11NY 128 @ IND 115Picked NY 54%Hit
- Nov 10NY 121 @ IND 132Picked NY 58%Miss
- Oct 25IND 98 @ NY 123Picked NY 64%Hit