Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints26
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists4
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Tyrese HaliburtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–116
- Q41.0Thunder offensive team rebound107–116
- Q41.0Jalen Williams misses 36-foot three point jumper107–116
- Q47.1Pascal Siakam makes driving layup107–116
- Q417.1Cason Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2107–114
- Q417.1Alex Caruso enters the game for Chet Holmgren106–114
- Q417.1Thunder offensive team rebound106–114
- Q417.1Cason Wallace misses free throw 1 of 2106–114
- Q417.1Andrew Nembhard personal foul106–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:02Bennedict Mathurin makes 24-foot three pointer (T.J. McConnell assists)OKC 96 – 98 IND · IND 39% → 54% +15IND 39% → 54%+15 pts
- Q46:42Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Myles Turner assists)OKC 98 – 101 IND · IND 44% → 61% +17IND 44% → 61%+17 pts
- Q45:58Jalen Williams makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotOKC 100 – 101 IND · OKC 38% → 50% +12OKC 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q45:38Myles Turner makes driving layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)OKC 100 – 103 IND · IND 51% → 62% +12IND 51% → 62%+12 pts
- Q43:04Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)OKC 102 – 110 IND · IND 82% → 94% +12IND 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -4.5
- ML OKC -215 / IND +180
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 59.2%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -191
- IND +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 115.0 – 110.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1745 | 1657 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +8 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +65 Elo | OKC 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 117.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 114.87th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–8 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+8 Elo- Isaiah Jackson achilles−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 64–37 | 48–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 61–36 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 56–45 | 55–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–3 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.