Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Jalen WilliamsAssists3
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds15
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints20
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists7
- Aaron NesmithRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–104
- Q41.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound111–104
- Q44.0Tyrese Haliburton misses 38-foot three point pullup jump shot111–104
- Q47.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2111–104
- Q47.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2110–104
- Q47.0Andrew Nembhard personal foul109–104
- Q419.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 1109–104
- Q419.1Bennedict Mathurin away from play foul108–104
- Q419.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2108–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:03Tyrese Haliburton makes 5-foot two point shotOKC 95 – 97 IND · IND 44% → 57% +13IND 44% → 57%+13 pts
- Q44:38Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 5-foot two point shot (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 97 – 97 IND · OKC 42% → 56% +13OKC 42% → 56%+13 pts
- Q43:20Tyrese Haliburton makes 3-foot two point shotOKC 99 – 103 IND · IND 61% → 75% +14IND 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q42:58Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 102 – 103 IND · OKC 23% → 46% +23OKC 23% → 46%+23 pts
- Q42:23Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot step back jumpshotOKC 104 – 103 IND · OKC 45% → 63% +18OKC 45% → 63%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML OKC -240 / IND +195
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1.5
- OKC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 55.6%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -208
- IND +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.0 – 110.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1733 | 1669 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +8 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +39 Elo | OKC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 117.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 114.87th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–8 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+8 Elo- Isaiah Jackson right achilles strain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 64–38 | 49–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 61–37 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 56–46 | 55–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–4 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.
- Jun 11OKC 107 @ IND 116PlayoffsPicked OKC 66%Miss
- Jun 8IND 107 @ OKC 123PlayoffsPicked OKC 81%Hit
- Jun 5IND 111 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 80%Miss
- Mar 29IND 111 @ OKC 132Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Dec 26OKC 120 @ IND 114Picked OKC 66%Hit
- Apr 5OKC 112 @ IND 126Picked IND 67%Hit
- Mar 12IND 121 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 57%Miss