Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints24
- Andrew NembhardAssists6
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints29
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists12
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–103
- Q419.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 291–103
- Q419.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 290–103
- Q419.1Dillon Jones shooting foul89–103
- Q419.2Ajay Mitchell lost ball turnover (Bennedict Mathurin steals)89–103
- Q425.1Bennedict Mathurin makes driving layup89–103
- Q432.1Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 287–103
- Q432.1Johnny Furphy enters the game for Pascal Siakam87–102
- Q432.1Thomas Bryant enters the game for Andrew Nembhard87–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24.1Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 48 – 47 OKC · IND 31% → 39% +8IND 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q310:30Pascal Siakam makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 51 – 52 OKC · IND 26% → 34% +8IND 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q38:32Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 56 – 56 OKC · IND 29% → 37% +9IND 29% → 37%+9 pts
- Q38:16Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 56 – 59 OKC · OKC 63% → 71% +9OKC 63% → 71%+9 pts
- Q33:00Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)IND 66 – 73 OKC · OKC 74% → 82% +8OKC 74% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML IND +210 / OKC -255
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 63.4%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -223
- IND +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 104.5 – 111.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1674 | 1728 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +1 | IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −3 · OKC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +96 Elo | OKC 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−5 Elo- Isaiah Jackson achilles−3 Elo
Thunder
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–54 | 66–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 63–38 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 56–48 | 57–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–5 OKC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jun 19OKC 91 @ IND 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 66%Miss
- Jun 16IND 109 @ OKC 120PlayoffsPicked OKC 74%Hit
- Jun 13OKC 111 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked OKC 68%Hit
- Jun 11OKC 107 @ IND 116PlayoffsPicked OKC 66%Miss
- Jun 8IND 107 @ OKC 123PlayoffsPicked OKC 81%Hit
- Jun 5IND 111 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 80%Miss
- Mar 29IND 111 @ OKC 132Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Dec 26OKC 120 @ IND 114Picked OKC 66%Hit