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Boston Celtics at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

FinalPrime Video

Away

Celtics

0-2

95–105

at

Home

Knicks

2-0

BOS 39%NY 61%

You didn't pick this one.

Madison Square Garden · Prime Video

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored BOS favored100 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4NY50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Celtics
Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game95–105
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–105
  • Q422.3Josh Hart defensive rebound95–105
  • Q424.7Hugo Gonzalez misses 26-foot three point jumper95–105
  • Q426.4Amari Williams offensive rebound95–105
  • Q429.3Payton Pritchard misses 8-foot pullup jump shot95–105
  • Q438.5Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound95–105
  • Q440.3Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 295–105
  • Q440.3Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns95–105
  • Q440.3Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Sam Hauser95–105

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q210:51OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)BOS 30 – 27 NY · NY 45% → 52% +7
  2. Q210:27Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three point shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)BOS 30 – 30 NY · NY 52% → 59% +7
  3. Q28:29Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 33 – 33 NY · BOS 34% → 41% +7
  4. Q27:48Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)BOS 36 – 33 NY · BOS 41% → 49% +8
  5. Q25:51Guerschon Yabusele makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)BOS 36 – 40 NY · NY 61% → 68% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 61%

LeanHit
BOS 39%NY 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
NY -4.5
ML BOS +145 / NY -170
Pre-line forecast
NY 63%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -3.5
NY 63%
Ratings vs. market
+2.5 pts
NY: Elo 63.2%, market 60.7%
Fair odds
NY -154
BOS +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 113.5 – 118.0 NY
Posted spread, posted total 231.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSNYWhy
Team rating16001574Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−108−24BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +94 EloNY 63.2%
Market-implied ratingsNY 63.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 63.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 60.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Boston Celtics and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatNY
8th of 30116.3Points scored115.89th of 30
2nd of 30107.2Points allowed111.79th of 30
3rd of 30+9.1Margin+4.18th of 30
2nd of 30118.1Offense rating116.45th of 30
5th of 30108.9Defense rating112.313th of 30
28th of 3097.7Pace98.426th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 106–410th of 30
1st of 3033–8Road vs home27–148th of 30
30th of 301489Opponent Elo149128th of 30
3rd of 301600Elo rating15746th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Celtics

−108 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Knicks

−24 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CelticsKnicks
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2024-25)BOSNY
Against the spread44–4950–50
Last 104–64–6
Favorite43–4538–35
Underdog1–412–15
Overs–unders43–5051–49
Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 10–5 NY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.