Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints31
- Lonzo BallAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints24
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- OG AnunobyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–119
- Q41.1OG Anunoby defensive rebound111–119
- Q43.4Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot111–119
- Q411.5OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2111–119
- Q411.5Tyrese Proctor enters the game for Sam Merrill111–118
- Q411.5Knicks offensive team rebound111–118
- Q411.5OG Anunoby misses free throw 1 of 2111–118
- Q411.5Sam Merrill personal take foul111–118
- Q415.4OG Anunoby defensive rebound111–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:53Miles McBride makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)CLE 78 – 82 NY · NY 52% → 63% +11NY 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q33:13Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)CLE 79 – 85 NY · NY 60% → 70% +10NY 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q31:32Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 86 – 85 NY · CLE 43% → 55% +12CLE 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q410:15Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)CLE 89 – 95 NY · NY 62% → 74% +12NY 62% → 74%+12 pts
- Q46:47Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 97 – 103 NY · CLE 11% → 21% +10CLE 11% → 21%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -1.5
- ML CLE -120 / NY +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- NY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.0 – 113.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | −33 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.9 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 111.79th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.5 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.426th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–11 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
| 26th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 5th of 301597 | Elo rating | 15648th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CLE |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 53–38 | 50–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 47–35 | 38–35 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders | 57–34 | 51–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–2 NY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.