Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints40
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Dominick BarlowRebounds8
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints25
- Jaylen BrownAssists4
- Neemias QuetaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–116
- Q41.0Celtics offensive team rebound117–116
- Q41.0Payton Pritchard misses 13-foot jumper117–116
- Q41.6Celtics offensive team rebound117–116
- Q43.3Payton Pritchard misses driving layup117–116
- Q47.8Sam Hauser enters the game for Xavier Tillman117–116
- Q47.8Celtics Full timeout117–116
- Q47.8Jaylen Brown defensive rebound117–116
- Q48.5VJ Edgecombe misses free throw 2 of 2117–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:50Jaylen Brown makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotPHI 107 – 111 BOS · BOS 73% → 87% +15BOS 73% → 87%+15 pts
- Q41:16Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 112 – 111 BOS · PHI 24% → 61% +36PHI 24% → 61%+36 pts
- Q415.9Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Xavier Tillman assists)PHI 115 – 114 BOS · BOS <1% → 25% +25BOS <1% → 25%+25 pts
- Q414.1VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 1 of 2PHI 116 – 114 BOS · PHI 76% → 93% +16PHI 76% → 93%+16 pts
- Q49.1Payton Pritchard makes driving layupPHI 117 – 116 BOS · BOS <1% → 18% +18BOS <1% → 18%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML PHI +160 / BOS -190
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -170
- PHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 112.0 – 117.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | −111 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +98 Elo | BOS 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 116.38th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 107.22nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.2 | Margin | +9.13rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 108.95th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.1 | Pace | 97.728th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–29 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 27th of 301388 | Elo rating | 16052nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−111 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–54 | 44–49 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 43–45 |
| Underdog | 21–35 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 48–34 | 43–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–6 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 6PHI 105 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Feb 20BOS 124 @ PHI 104Picked BOS 69%Hit
- Feb 2BOS 118 @ PHI 110Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 25PHI 118 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 78%Miss
- Feb 27PHI 99 @ BOS 117Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Dec 1PHI 119 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 68%Hit
- Nov 15BOS 117 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 55%Miss
- Nov 8BOS 103 @ PHI 106Picked PHI 60%Hit