Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Kevin HuerterPoints18
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists6
- Jalen SmithRebounds10
76ers- Lonnie Walker IVPoints31
- Jared ButlerAssists5
- Marcus BagleyRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–102
- Q412.2shot clock turnover122–102
- Q437.1Jared Butler makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Mobley assists)122–102
- Q448.0Zach Collins makes free throw 2 of 2122–99
- Q448.0Zach Collins makes free throw 1 of 2121–99
- Q448.0Adem Bona loose ball foul120–99
- Q448.0Bulls defensive team rebound120–99
- Q448.0Jared Butler misses finger roll layup120–99
- Q41:01Emanuel Miller makes two point shot120–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:26Lonnie Walker IV makes 28-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Mobley assists)CHI 34 – 38 PHI · PHI 32% → 39% +7PHI 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q29:10Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 37 – 38 PHI · CHI 60% → 68% +7CHI 60% → 68%+7 pts
- Q23:24Lonnie Walker IV makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 45 – 49 PHI · PHI 34% → 42% +8PHI 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q311:17Zach Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 54 – 58 PHI · CHI 46% → 55% +9CHI 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q39:34Julian Phillips makes 23-foot three point shot (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 64 – 60 PHI · CHI 69% → 77% +8CHI 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -7.5
- ML CHI -320 / PHI +260
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -8
- CHI 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 77.9%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -274
- PHI +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 122.0 – 114.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1319 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | −60 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Guerschon Yabusele −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +219 Elo | CHI 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 109.726th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −6.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 110.122nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 116.126th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 99.023rd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 12–2826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−60 Elo- Guerschon Yabusele right knee soreness−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–37 | 28–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 32–27 | 21–34 |
| Overs–unders | 42–39 | 48–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–3 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.