Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints30
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–135
- Q43.3Ronald Holland II bad pass (Tristan da Silva steals)116–135
- Q425.4Noah Penda makes tip shot116–135
- Q427.9Noah Penda offensive rebound114–135
- Q427.9Noah Penda misses tip shot114–135
- Q427.9Noah Penda offensive rebound114–135
- Q428.9Jett Howard misses driving layup114–135
- Q433.9Jett Howard defensive rebound114–135
- Q436.3Paul Reed misses dunk114–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q250.1Ausar Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)ORL 64 – 65 DET · DET 41% → 50% +9DET 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q39:50Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)ORL 70 – 70 DET · DET 38% → 47% +9DET 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q39:40Wendell Carter Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 73 – 70 DET · ORL 53% → 62% +9ORL 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q38:44Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)ORL 73 – 75 DET · DET 44% → 54% +9DET 44% → 54%+9 pts
- Q411:25Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)ORL 94 – 104 DET · DET 76% → 85% +9DET 76% → 85%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML ORL -130 / DET +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- ORL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 44.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 114.0 – 112.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +21 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.5 | Points scored | 110.027th of 30 |
| 18th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 113.88th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−6.0 | Margin | −3.819th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 104.828th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 108.48th of 30 |
| 10th of 30105.2 | Pace | 105.39th of 30 |
| 20th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 30 |
| 20th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15792nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301469 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ORL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–43 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 17–23 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders | 38–49 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–1 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.