Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints21
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Josh GiddeyRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Desmond BaneAssists3
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–98
- Q44.6shot clock turnover110–98
- Q426.1Patrick Williams defensive rebound110–98
- Q429.4Paolo Banchero misses two point shot110–98
- Q440.7Paolo Banchero defensive rebound110–98
- Q443.2Tre Jones misses free throw 2 of 2110–98
- Q443.2Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2110–98
- Q443.2Wendell Carter Jr. personal foul109–98
- Q459.0Anthony Black bad pass (Tre Jones steals)109–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:31Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point shot (Tre Jones assists)CHI 57 – 50 ORL · CHI 49% → 58% +9CHI 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q34:54Wendell Carter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)CHI 73 – 67 ORL · ORL 30% → 40% +10ORL 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q49:14Franz Wagner makes two point shotCHI 88 – 85 ORL · ORL 35% → 44% +9ORL 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q48:53Ayo Dosunmu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 91 – 85 ORL · CHI 56% → 70% +14CHI 56% → 70%+14 pts
- Q48:11Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 94 – 85 ORL · CHI 71% → 83% +11CHI 71% → 83%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML CHI +200 / ORL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 51.9%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -212
- CHI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.5 – 120.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | +40 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +13 Elo | ORL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 105.428th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 105.51st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 107.727th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.5 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 22–1916th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 13th of 301529 | Elo rating | 149816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CHI |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–37 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–10 | 27–20 |
| Underdog | 32–27 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 38–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–5 ORL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.