Miami Heat at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints28
- Davion MitchellAssists12
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–125
- Q43.4Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound121–125
- Q43.4Bam Adebayo misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot121–125
- Q46.1Nikola Jovic enters the game for Kel'el Ware121–125
- Q46.1Davion Mitchell enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.121–125
- Q46.1Heat Full timeout121–125
- Q46.1Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2121–125
- Q46.1Kel'el Ware enters the game for Davion Mitchell121–124
- Q46.1Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2121–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:50Desmond Bane makes 28-foot three pointer (Anthony Black assists)MIA 111 – 107 ORL · ORL 21% → 35% +15ORL 21% → 35%+15 pts
- Q43:49Wendell Carter Jr. makes two point shotMIA 113 – 114 ORL · ORL 50% → 64% +14ORL 50% → 64%+14 pts
- Q41:35Paolo Banchero makes 2-foot dunk (Desmond Bane assists)MIA 116 – 119 ORL · ORL 66% → 84% +18ORL 66% → 84%+18 pts
- Q41:13Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 119 – 119 ORL · MIA 14% → 46% +32MIA 14% → 46%+32 pts
- Q458.7Jalen Suggs makes 10-foot two point shotMIA 119 – 121 ORL · ORL 54% → 79% +26ORL 54% → 79%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -8.5
- ML MIA +270 / ORL -340
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- ORL: Elo 69.8%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -286
- MIA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 103.5 – 112.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +70 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +145 Elo | ORL 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 105.428th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 105.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 107.727th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 22–1916th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 20th of 301476 | Elo rating | 150415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–47 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 27–20 |
| Underdog | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders | 47–39 | 38–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–3 ORL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
- Jan 27ORL 119 @ MIA 125Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 26MIA 89 @ ORL 88Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 21MIA 114 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 54%Hit
- Oct 23ORL 116 @ MIA 97Picked MIA 55%Miss
- Feb 6ORL 95 @ MIA 121Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Jan 21MIA 87 @ ORL 105Picked MIA 51%Miss
- Jan 12ORL 96 @ MIA 99Picked MIA 57%Hit
- Dec 20MIA 115 @ ORL 106Picked ORL 61%Miss