Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints25
- Trae YoungAssists6
- Dyson DanielsRebounds9
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints27
- Desmond BaneAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–107
- Q40.0Jalen Suggs bad pass (Jalen Johnson steals)111–107
- Q41.0Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2111–107
- Q41.0Dyson Daniels enters the game for Luke Kennard110–107
- Q41.0Jalen Suggs enters the game for Anthony Black110–107
- Q41.0Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2110–107
- Q41.0Franz Wagner personal foul109–107
- Q45.1Trae Young enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye109–107
- Q45.1Luke Kennard enters the game for Dyson Daniels109–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:59Trae Young makes 29-foot three point shotATL 96 – 93 ORL · ATL 44% → 62% +17ATL 44% → 62%+17 pts
- Q43:20Onyeka Okongwu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 103 – 98 ORL · ATL 61% → 81% +20ATL 61% → 81%+20 pts
- Q446.3Trae Young makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 107 – 105 ORL · ATL 48% → 78% +30ATL 48% → 78%+30 pts
- Q438.2Jalen Suggs makes driving layup (Paolo Banchero assists)ATL 107 – 107 ORL · ORL 20% → 52% +32ORL 20% → 52%+32 pts
- Q421.0Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2ATL 108 – 107 ORL · ATL 49% → 72% +23ATL 49% → 72%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML ATL +180 / ORL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 68.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -191
- ATL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.0 – 120.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +67 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +136 Elo | ORL 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 67.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 105.428th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 105.51st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 107.727th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 22–1916th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301460 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ATL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–41 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–19 | 27–20 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders | 50–32 | 38–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–3 ORL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Apr 13ORL 105 @ ATL 117Picked ORL 60%Miss
- Apr 8ATL 112 @ ORL 119Picked ORL 64%Hit
- Feb 20ORL 114 @ ATL 108Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Feb 10ATL 112 @ ORL 106Picked ORL 68%Miss
- Feb 25ORL 92 @ ATL 109Picked ORL 56%Miss
- Jan 17ORL 104 @ ATL 106Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Jan 7ATL 110 @ ORL 117Picked ORL 56%Hit
- Nov 9ATL 120 @ ORL 119Picked ATL 62%Hit