Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints25
- Scottie BarnesAssists9
- Brandon IngramRebounds9
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints22
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–118
- Q44.9Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound138–118
- Q47.9Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses driving layup138–118
- Q426.5Hawks defensive team rebound138–118
- Q428.1Jamison Battle misses 26-foot three point jumper138–118
- Q448.8Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2138–118
- Q448.8Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2138–117
- Q448.8Ochai Agbaji shooting foul138–116
- Q451.1Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound138–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:47Jamal Shead makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 47 – 37 ATL · TOR 54% → 62% +7TOR 54% → 62%+7 pts
- Q25:13Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)TOR 51 – 42 ATL · ATL 31% → 39% +7ATL 31% → 39%+7 pts
- Q23:27Zaccharie Risacher makes 26-foot three pointer (Kristaps Porzingis assists)TOR 59 – 49 ATL · ATL 28% → 35% +7ATL 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q21:58Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)TOR 59 – 55 ATL · ATL 42% → 51% +8ATL 42% → 51%+8 pts
- Q310:44Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)TOR 69 – 64 ATL · ATL 37% → 46% +9ATL 37% → 46%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -5.5
- ML TOR +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 68.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- TOR +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.0 – 121.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +46 | TOR: Usual rotation · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +132 Elo | ATL 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 77.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 118.25th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 119.327th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.3 | Margin | −1.118th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 104.43rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–29 | Road vs home | 21–1919th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301437 | Elo rating | 148519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  TOR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–33 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 50–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–3 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.