Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints35
- Jonathan MogboAssists10
- Jonathan MogboRebounds14
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints23
- Stephon CastleAssists6
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–125
- Q42.1Chris Paul defensive rebound118–125
- Q42.1Jamison Battle misses 25-foot three point jumper118–125
- Q46.1Raptors Full timeout118–125
- Q46.1Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2118–125
- Q46.1Chris Paul makes free throw 1 of 2118–124
- Q46.1Jonathan Mogbo personal take foul118–123
- Q47.1Spurs Full timeout118–123
- Q48.1Jonathan Mogbo makes alley oop dunk shot (Scottie Barnes assists)118–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:12Jamison Battle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 98 – 95 SA · TOR 44% → 57% +13TOR 44% → 57%+13 pts
- Q46:32Keldon Johnson makes 27-foot three pointerTOR 103 – 108 SA · SA 65% → 79% +14SA 65% → 79%+14 pts
- Q43:34Jonathan Mogbo makes two point shotTOR 109 – 111 SA · TOR 20% → 32% +12TOR 20% → 32%+12 pts
- Q42:29Scottie Barnes makes 4-foot two point shotTOR 111 – 113 SA · TOR 16% → 30% +14TOR 16% → 30%+14 pts
- Q42:15Stephon Castle makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotTOR 111 – 115 SA · SA 71% → 85% +14SA 71% → 85%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -4.5
- ML TOR +150 / SA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2
- SA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- SA: Elo 57.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- SA -159
- TOR +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 114.0 – 118.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −58 | −33 | TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −28, RJ Barrett −23, Chris Boucher −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +56 Elo | SA 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 64.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.8 | Points scored | 113.817th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 116.722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.3 | Margin | −2.921st of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 115.125th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–28 | Road vs home | 19–2020th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−58 Elo- Immanuel Quickley rest−28 Elo
- RJ Barrett rest−23 Elo
- Chris Boucher illness−15 Elo
- Jared Rhoden right shoulder sprain−13 Elo
Spurs
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–32 | 38–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 39–27 | 26–31 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 46–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.