San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Julian ChampagniePoints23
- Stephon CastleAssists10
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds9
Suns- Ryan DunnPoints26
- Bradley BealAssists6
- Ryan DunnRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–117
- Q44.0Oso Ighodaro defensive rebound98–117
- Q48.1David Duke Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper98–117
- Q410.0Spurs offensive team rebound98–117
- Q410.0Oso Ighodaro blocks Malaki Branham 's 11-foot driving layup98–117
- Q419.1Jalen Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damion Lee assists)98–117
- Q437.0Malaki Branham makes free throw 2 of 298–114
- Q437.0Jalen Bridges enters the game for Ryan Dunn97–114
- Q437.0TyTy Washington Jr. enters the game for Royce O'Neale97–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:18Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyus Jones assists)SA 38 – 31 PHX · PHX 41% → 48% +7PHX 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q26:22Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point shot (Bradley Beal assists)SA 42 – 38 PHX · PHX 46% → 54% +8PHX 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q25:22Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)SA 42 – 41 PHX · PHX 53% → 61% +8PHX 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q24:40Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point shot (Jordan McLaughlin assists)SA 45 – 41 PHX · SA 39% → 47% +8SA 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q24:18Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)SA 45 – 44 PHX · PHX 53% → 61% +8PHX 53% → 61%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML SA +195 / PHX -230
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1
- PHX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 53.2%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -206
- SA +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.5 – 119.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | −73 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +22 Elo | PHX 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 113.818th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 117.024th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.7 | Margin | −3.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 114.310th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 117.528th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–26 | Road vs home | 23–1714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–42 | 30–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 26–30 | 12–25 |
| Overs–unders | 46–34 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–2 PHX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.