Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints32
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds10
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints43
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–136
- Q420.3VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound124–136
- Q424.9Paolo Banchero misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot124–136
- Q438.7Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound124–136
- Q438.7Adem Bona misses free throw 1 of 1124–136
- Q438.7Wendell Carter Jr. loose ball foul124–136
- Q438.7Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2124–136
- Q438.7Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2124–135
- Q438.7Franz Wagner personal take foul124–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:11Eric Gordon makes 27-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)ORL 98 – 106 PHI · PHI 62% → 74% +11PHI 62% → 74%+11 pts
- Q46:39Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 111 – 115 PHI · ORL 21% → 35% +14ORL 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q44:38Paolo Banchero makes 16-foot pullup jump shotORL 115 – 118 PHI · ORL 24% → 36% +12ORL 24% → 36%+12 pts
- Q44:11Kelly Oubre Jr. makes tip shotORL 115 – 120 PHI · PHI 65% → 77% +12PHI 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q43:20Desmond Bane makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 118 – 122 PHI · ORL 10% → 25% +15ORL 10% → 25%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML ORL -240 / PHI +200
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4
- ORL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 65.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -212
- PHI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 117.0 – 110.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | −13 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +112 Elo | ORL 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.4 | Points scored | 109.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −6.225th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 109.922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 116.126th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 99.122nd of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 12–2926th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 18th of 301486 | Elo rating | 139826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ORL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–43 | 28–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 17–23 | 21–35 |
| Overs–unders | 38–49 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.