Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- LaMelo BallRebounds10
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–125
- Q40.1Hornets offensive team rebound121–125
- Q40.1LaMelo Ball misses heave jump shot121–125
- Q41.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2121–125
- Q41.1LaMelo Ball enters the game for Sion James121–124
- Q41.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2121–124
- Q41.1Collin Sexton personal take foul121–123
- Q41.7Moussa Diabate enters the game for LaMelo Ball121–123
- Q41.7Collin Sexton enters the game for Tre Mann121–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:35VJ Edgecombe makes 1-foot two point shot (Quentin Grimes assists)CHA 116 – 115 PHI · PHI 28% → 44% +17PHI 28% → 44%+17 pts
- Q42:13Andre Drummond makes dunkCHA 116 – 117 PHI · PHI 43% → 62% +19PHI 43% → 62%+19 pts
- Q42:03LaMelo Ball makes 19-foot pullup jump shotCHA 118 – 117 PHI · CHA 37% → 57% +20CHA 37% → 57%+20 pts
- Q41:02Tyrese Maxey makes 16-foot pullup jump shotCHA 119 – 119 PHI · PHI 25% → 52% +27PHI 25% → 52%+27 pts
- Q415.0Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)CHA 119 – 122 PHI · PHI 51% → 99% +48PHI 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML CHA +160 / PHI -190
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- CHA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 116.5 – 121.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +64 | +51 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +53 Elo | PHI 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 109.626th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.1 | Margin | −6.225th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 109.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 116.126th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–34 | Road vs home | 12–2926th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 29th of 301363 | Elo rating | 139326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CHA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 28–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 36–37 | 21–35 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–8 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Dec 20CHA 98 @ PHI 108Picked PHI 84%Hit
- Dec 16PHI 121 @ CHA 108Picked PHI 55%Hit
- Dec 3PHI 110 @ CHA 104Picked PHI 62%Hit
- Nov 10CHA 105 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Mar 16CHA 98 @ PHI 109Picked PHI 61%Hit
- Mar 1CHA 114 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 67%Hit
- Jan 20PHI 97 @ CHA 89Picked PHI 81%Hit
- Dec 16PHI 135 @ CHA 82Picked PHI 71%Hit