Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints17
- Michael Porter Jr.Assists5
- Ben SarafRebounds7
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–136
- Q49.5shot clock turnover117–136
- Q434.3Egor Demin makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)117–136
- Q444.1Miles Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)114–136
- Q41:01Miles Bridges defensive rebound114–133
- Q41:04Nolan Traore misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot114–133
- Q41:10Moussa Diabate 3 second turnover114–133
- Q41:12Moussa Diabate offensive rebound114–133
- Q41:13Moussa Diabate misses driving layup114–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:08Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)BKN 14 – 12 CHA · BKN 34% → 40% +6BKN 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q12:39Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)BKN 25 – 27 CHA · CHA 61% → 68% +6CHA 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q11:46Kon Knueppel makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)BKN 29 – 32 CHA · CHA 63% → 70% +6CHA 63% → 70%+6 pts
- Q29:43Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)BKN 40 – 44 CHA · CHA 65% → 72% +7CHA 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q24:34LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)BKN 52 – 60 CHA · CHA 74% → 80% +6CHA 74% → 80%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -5.5
- ML BKN +175 / CHA -210
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -0.5
- CHA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- CHA: Elo 52.2%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- CHA -186
- BKN +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 111.5 – 117.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1348 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +49 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +15 Elo | CHA 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 105.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 114.216th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.1 | Margin | −9.127th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 105.129th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 114.223rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3097.9 | Pace | 99.620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 12–2926th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 26th of 301394 | Elo rating | 134829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  BKN |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–39 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 38–32 | 36–37 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44 | 33–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–3 CHA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.