Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- De'Andre HunterAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints12
- Daniss JenkinsAssists5
- Isaiah StewartRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–95
- Q46.5shot clock turnover116–95
- Q430.5Tolu Smith makes free throw 1 of 1116–95
- Q430.5Thomas Bryant shooting foul116–94
- Q430.5Tolu Smith makes tip shot116–94
- Q431.5Tolu Smith offensive rebound116–92
- Q432.5Tolu Smith misses layup116–92
- Q439.1Chaz Lanier offensive rebound116–92
- Q441.9Bobi Klintman misses free throw 1 of 1116–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:05Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)CLE 6 – 12 DET · DET 52% → 59% +6DET 52% → 59%+6 pts
- Q17:53Sam Merrill makes 22-foot three point shot (De'Andre Hunter assists)CLE 12 – 14 DET · CLE 43% → 50% +6CLE 43% → 50%+6 pts
- Q16:39Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 17 – 16 DET · CLE 50% → 56% +7CLE 50% → 56%+7 pts
- Q14:18De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylon Tyson assists)CLE 22 – 20 DET · CLE 52% → 58% +7CLE 52% → 58%+7 pts
- Q14:01Isaiah Stewart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)CLE 22 – 23 DET · DET 42% → 48% +7DET 42% → 48%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -1.5
- ML CLE -130 / DET +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.5 – 115.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −4 | +18 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +26 Elo | CLE 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 115.021st of 30 |
| 17th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 113.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +2.014th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 110.518th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 108.68th of 30 |
| 9th of 30105.6 | Pace | 104.513th of 30 |
| 7th of 271–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15535th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301598 | Elo rating | 151315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 53–38 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 47–35 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–34 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–1 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Mar 28CLE 122 @ DET 133Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Feb 5CLE 118 @ DET 115Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Jan 27DET 91 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Oct 25DET 101 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Mar 1CLE 110 @ DET 100Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Jan 31DET 121 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Dec 2CLE 110 @ DET 101Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Nov 17DET 100 @ CLE 108Picked CLE 57%Hit