Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints40
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints24
- Evan MobleyAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–118
- Q41.0Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2113–118
- Q41.0Sam Merrill enters the game for Jarrett Allen113–117
- Q41.0Evan Mobley makes free throw 1 of 2113–117
- Q41.0Myles Turner loose ball foul113–116
- Q41.0Cavaliers defensive team rebound113–116
- Q41.7Gary Trent Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2113–116
- Q41.7Jarrett Allen enters the game for Sam Merrill113–116
- Q41.7Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2113–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:32Myles Turner makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 96 – 98 CLE · MIL 20% → 33% +13MIL 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q46:39De'Andre Hunter makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Lonzo Ball assists)MIL 98 – 100 CLE · CLE 57% → 67% +11CLE 57% → 67%+11 pts
- Q45:22Lonzo Ball makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)MIL 98 – 103 CLE · CLE 68% → 82% +15CLE 68% → 82%+15 pts
- Q42:41Ryan Rollins makes driving layupMIL 104 – 107 CLE · MIL 11% → 22% +11MIL 11% → 22%+11 pts
- Q42:26Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three pointer (De'Andre Hunter assists)MIL 104 – 110 CLE · CLE 79% → 93% +14CLE 79% → 93%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML MIL +200 / CLE -240
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -212
- MIL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 113.5 – 120.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −13 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +53 Elo | CLE 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 121.91st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +9.52nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 34–72nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 10th of 301547 | Elo rating | 15923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–41 | 53–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–28 | 47–35 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 46–42 | 57–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–6 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 9CLE 112 @ MIL 100Picked CLE 70%Hit
- Dec 20MIL 101 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 4MIL 114 @ CLE 116Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 2CLE 114 @ MIL 113Picked MIL 54%Miss
- Jan 26CLE 112 @ MIL 100Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Jan 24CLE 116 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Jan 17MIL 95 @ CLE 135Picked CLE 67%Hit
- Dec 29MIL 119 @ CLE 111Picked MIL 61%Hit