Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints31
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds20
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints29
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Immanuel QuickleyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–116
- Q46.8Cole Anthony defensive rebound122–116
- Q410.3Brandon Ingram misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot122–116
- Q419.0Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound122–116
- Q421.5Gary Trent Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2122–116
- Q421.5Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2122–116
- Q421.5(00:21.5) [Raptors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Raptors] charged with a timeout121–116
- Q421.5Raptors Full timeout121–116
- Q421.5Jakob Poeltl personal foul121–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:23Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 97 – 97 TOR · MIL 34% → 48% +14MIL 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q48:49Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)MIL 100 – 97 TOR · MIL 48% → 62% +14MIL 48% → 62%+14 pts
- Q48:03Cole Anthony makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 103 – 99 TOR · MIL 53% → 68% +15MIL 53% → 68%+15 pts
- Q43:42Cole Anthony makes two point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 110 – 108 TOR · MIL 49% → 64% +15MIL 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q43:16Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Taurean Prince assists)MIL 113 – 109 TOR · MIL 57% → 78% +21MIL 57% → 78%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML MIL +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- TOR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 46.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 116.5 – 119.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +4 | MIL: Usual rotation · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +28 Elo | MIL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 110.923rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 115.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −4.324th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 108.425th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.616th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 18–2323rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301540 | Elo rating | 146222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–41 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–28 | 10–5 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 39–28 |
| Overs–unders | 46–42 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–2 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.