Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Khris MiddletonPoints23
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists4
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–133
- Q44.9Bucks offensive team rebound120–133
- Q45.4Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses layup120–133
- Q427.5Will Riley makes two point shot (AJ Johnson assists)120–133
- Q444.5Jericho Sims makes free throw 2 of 2118–133
- Q444.5Amir Coffey enters the game for Ryan Rollins118–132
- Q444.5Jericho Sims makes free throw 1 of 2118–132
- Q444.5Anthony Gill loose ball foul118–131
- Q444.5Bucks offensive team rebound118–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:47Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)WSH 67 – 77 MIL · MIL 84% → 90% +5MIL 84% → 90%+5 pts
- Q37:31Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Sarr assists)WSH 70 – 77 MIL · WSH 10% → 16% +5WSH 10% → 16%+5 pts
- Q37:17Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)WSH 70 – 80 MIL · MIL 84% → 90% +5MIL 84% → 90%+5 pts
- Q32:26Cam Whitmore makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotWSH 85 – 92 MIL · WSH 9% → 15% +6WSH 9% → 15%+6 pts
- Q49:12Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 101 – 109 MIL · WSH 5% → 10% +5WSH 5% → 10%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML WSH +290 / MIL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -8.5
- MIL 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 79.3%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -309
- WSH +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.0 – 118.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1348 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +9 | WSH: Usual rotation · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +233 Elo | MIL 79.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 82.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 82.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 115.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 112.713th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.4 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.9 | Offense rating | 114.111th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.7 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–31 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301348 | Elo rating | 153511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–47 | 47–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 29–28 |
| Underdog | 35–44 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 40–42 | 46–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–5 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.