Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- Lonzo BallAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints33
- Cam ThomasAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–124
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound131–124
- Q40.1Cam Thomas misses heave jump shot131–124
- Q44.3Sam Merrill makes free throw 2 of 2131–124
- Q44.3Sam Merrill makes free throw 1 of 2130–124
- Q44.3Terance Mann personal take foul129–124
- Q46.1Michael Porter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Terance Mann assists)129–124
- Q47.1Dean Wade enters the game for Larry Nance Jr.129–122
- Q47.1Nets Full timeout129–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:55Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)CLE 121 – 112 BKN · CLE 89% → 95% +6CLE 89% → 95%+6 pts
- Q45:18Ziaire Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)CLE 121 – 115 BKN · BKN 4% → 10% +6BKN 4% → 10%+6 pts
- Q44:30Cam Thomas makes two point shot (Nic Claxton assists)CLE 121 – 117 BKN · BKN 9% → 16% +7BKN 9% → 16%+7 pts
- Q43:48Egor Demin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)CLE 121 – 120 BKN · BKN 16% → 32% +17BKN 16% → 32%+17 pts
- Q43:25Jarrett Allen makes 9-foot two point shot (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 123 – 120 BKN · CLE 68% → 80% +13CLE 68% → 80%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -11.5
- ML CLE -750 / BKN +475
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 69.2%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -507
- BKN +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 121.0 – 109.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +14 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +141 Elo | CLE 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 78.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 78.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.9 | Points scored | 105.129th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 112.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.5 | Margin | −7.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 106.828th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 114.022nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.927th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–11 | Road vs home | 12–2926th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 5th of 301588 | Elo rating | 137928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CLE |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 53–38 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 47–35 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 38–32 |
| Overs–unders | 57–34 | 38–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–1 BKN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 11BKN 104 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Feb 20CLE 110 @ BKN 97Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Dec 16CLE 130 @ BKN 101Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Nov 9BKN 100 @ CLE 105Picked CLE 85%Hit
- Mar 10BKN 120 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 75%Miss
- Feb 8CLE 118 @ BKN 95Picked CLE 63%Hit
- Jan 11BKN 102 @ CLE 111Picked CLE 66%Hit
- Oct 25CLE 114 @ BKN 113Picked BKN 55%Miss