Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints44
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Grizzlies- Jaylen WellsPoints16
- Ja MorantAssists7
- Cedric CowardRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–112
- Q41.4Jaylen Wells makes 1-foot driving dunk117–112
- Q42.5Jaylen Wells offensive rebound117–110
- Q44.4Jaylen Wells misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot117–110
- Q47.5Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Austin Reaves117–110
- Q47.5Grizzlies Full timeout117–110
- Q47.5Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2117–110
- Q47.5Dalton Knecht enters the game for Luka Doncic116–110
- Q47.5Jake LaRavia enters the game for Marcus Smart116–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:10Cam Spencer makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)LAL 78 – 79 MEM · MEM 40% → 51% +10MEM 40% → 51%+10 pts
- Q31:49Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)LAL 85 – 86 MEM · MEM 40% → 51% +12MEM 40% → 51%+12 pts
- Q346.4John Konchar makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)LAL 87 – 91 MEM · MEM 52% → 63% +12MEM 52% → 63%+12 pts
- Q410:29Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 96 – 91 MEM · LAL 61% → 73% +12LAL 61% → 73%+12 pts
- Q46:43Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 105 – 97 MEM · LAL 77% → 88% +11LAL 77% → 88%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML LAL -135 / MEM +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 59.6%, market 54.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -121
- MEM +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 120.0 – 118.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −50 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +67 Elo | LAL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 54.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 120.410th of 30 |
| 15th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 123.023rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.620th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 111.720th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 114.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 30102.3 | Pace | 107.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 292–0 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
| 6th of 301538 | Opponent Elo | 148622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301559 | Elo rating | 151215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–0 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–2 MEM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Mar 29LAL 134 @ MEM 127Picked MEM 50%Miss
- Dec 15MEM 110 @ LAL 116Picked MEM 54%Miss
- Nov 13MEM 123 @ LAL 128Picked LAL 73%Hit
- Nov 6LAL 114 @ MEM 131Picked MEM 60%Hit
- Apr 12LAL 123 @ MEM 120Picked LAL 68%Hit
- Mar 27LAL 136 @ MEM 124Picked MEM 50%Miss
- Jan 5MEM 127 @ LAL 113Picked LAL 63%Miss
- Nov 14MEM 107 @ LAL 134Picked LAL 52%Hit