Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints25
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds14
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints41
- Austin ReavesAssists5
- Deandre AytonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–108
- Q42.3shot clock turnover122–108
- Q426.5Dalton Knecht makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)122–108
- Q435.2Duop Reath makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caleb Love assists)122–105
- Q448.3Rayan Rupert offensive rebound119–105
- Q449.0Caleb Love misses 12-foot two point shot119–105
- Q41:14Duop Reath enters the game for Toumani Camara119–105
- Q41:14Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Donovan Clingan119–105
- Q41:14Yang Hansen enters the game for Jerami Grant119–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10.6Jrue Holiday makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 28 – 24 LAL · POR 59% → 65% +7POR 59% → 65%+7 pts
- Q26:06Deni Avdija makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 40 – 38 LAL · POR 53% → 61% +8POR 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q21:10Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)POR 52 – 47 LAL · LAL 24% → 31% +7LAL 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q257.8Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 55 – 47 LAL · POR 69% → 76% +7POR 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q32:49Caleb Love makes 23-foot three point shot (Jerami Grant assists)POR 84 – 73 LAL · POR 80% → 87% +7POR 80% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML POR -145 / LAL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -2
- POR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- POR: Elo 58.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -133
- LAL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 115.5 – 112.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAL and POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +42 | −123 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Missing Jaxson Hayes −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +57 Elo | POR 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 121.311th of 30 |
| 13th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 116.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +5.011th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 120.04th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 115.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.8 | Pace | 100.824th of 30 |
| 18th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 30 |
| 4th of 301563 | Opponent Elo | 15406th of 30 |
| 18th of 301491 | Elo rating | 15638th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−123 Elo- Jaxson Hayes left patellar tendon strain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  POR |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–36 | 48–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 28–23 |
| Underdog | 38–30 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 43–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–6 LAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.