Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints41
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints29
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Toumani CamaraRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–114
- Q41.1Julius Randle defensive rebound118–114
- Q41.1Deni Avdija misses 9-foot jumper118–114
- Q46.8Donovan Clingan enters the game for Kris Murray118–114
- Q46.8Jaylen Clark enters the game for Naz Reid118–114
- Q46.8Trail Blazers Full timeout118–114
- Q47.0Anthony Edwards makes 20-foot step back jumpshot118–114
- Q428.8Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2116–114
- Q428.8Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2116–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:51Julius Randle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)MIN 103 – 105 POR · MIN 26% → 43% +16MIN 26% → 43%+16 pts
- Q43:36Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three pointer (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 108 – 107 POR · MIN 39% → 61% +22MIN 39% → 61%+22 pts
- Q42:25Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 111 – 110 POR · MIN 35% → 62% +27MIN 35% → 62%+27 pts
- Q41:14Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 114 – 112 POR · MIN 39% → 76% +37MIN 39% → 76%+37 pts
- Q432.1Rudy Gobert makes dunkMIN 116 – 112 POR · MIN 85% → 98% +13MIN 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML MIN -190 / POR +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- POR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 113.5 – 109.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +20 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −43, Robert Williams III −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 110.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 113.915th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | −3.022nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 109.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.716th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 22–1916th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301605 | Elo rating | 148718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+20 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−43 Elo
- Robert Williams III return to competition reconditioning−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–48 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–37 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 53–44 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–2 POR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Feb 8POR 98 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 59%Hit
- Nov 13MIN 98 @ POR 106Picked MIN 80%Miss
- Nov 12MIN 108 @ POR 122Picked MIN 72%Miss
- Nov 8POR 102 @ MIN 127Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Mar 4POR 114 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 71%Hit
- Feb 15MIN 128 @ POR 91Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Feb 13MIN 121 @ POR 109Picked MIN 67%Hit
- Jan 12POR 93 @ MIN 116Picked MIN 83%Hit