Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints31
- Draymond GreenAssists9
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds9
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints43
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–109
- Q412.0shot clock turnover119–109
- Q433.3Gary Payton II defensive rebound119–109
- Q435.5Luka Doncic misses 22-foot three point shot119–109
- Q439.1Marcus Smart enters the game for Rui Hachimura119–109
- Q439.1Lakers Full timeout119–109
- Q439.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2119–109
- Q439.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2118–109
- Q439.1Gabe Vincent personal take foul117–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:28Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)GS 49 – 48 LAL · LAL 33% → 41% +8LAL 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q255.6Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)GS 50 – 51 LAL · LAL 39% → 47% +8LAL 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q233.0Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 53 – 51 LAL · GS 53% → 61% +9GS 53% → 61%+9 pts
- Q219.5Luka Doncic makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 53 – 54 LAL · LAL 39% → 47% +9LAL 39% → 47%+9 pts
- Q311:47Jonathan Kuminga makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 58 – 54 LAL · GS 59% → 67% +8GS 59% → 67%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -2.5
- ML GS -150 / LAL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 39%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- GS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- GS: Elo 47.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -138
- LAL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.0 – 112.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −15 | GS: Usual rotation · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +21 Elo | LAL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 113.419th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 112.210th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 99.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 31–103rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 10th of 301542 | Elo rating | 15449th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  GS |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–47 | 48–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–31 | 28–23 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–47 | 43–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–4 LAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Apr 3GS 123 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 50%Miss
- Feb 6GS 112 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 62%Hit
- Jan 25LAL 118 @ GS 108Picked LAL 51%Hit
- Dec 25LAL 115 @ GS 113Picked GS 61%Miss
- Apr 9GS 134 @ LAL 120Picked GS 52%Hit
- Mar 16GS 128 @ LAL 121Picked LAL 61%Miss
- Feb 22LAL 110 @ GS 128Picked GS 58%Hit
- Jan 27LAL 145 @ GS 144Picked LAL 53%Hit