Portland Trail Blazers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints23
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds10
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints30
- James HardenAssists13
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–114
- Q48.3Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound107–114
- Q412.8Shaedon Sharpe misses running pullup jump shot107–114
- Q414.8Shaedon Sharpe defensive rebound107–114
- Q418.6Kris Dunn misses 25-foot three point jumper107–114
- Q439.4Jrue Holiday makes driving layup107–114
- Q446.4Nicolas Batum enters the game for Ivica Zubac105–114
- Q446.4James Harden out of bounds bad pass turnover105–114
- Q41:01Clippers Full timeout105–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:26Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)POR 66 – 62 LAC · LAC 46% → 55% +9LAC 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q39:23Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)POR 68 – 65 LAC · LAC 48% → 57% +9LAC 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q37:41Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 72 – 73 LAC · LAC 59% → 68% +9LAC 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q36:03Kris Dunn makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)POR 75 – 76 LAC · LAC 58% → 68% +10LAC 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q49:57Chris Paul makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)POR 84 – 90 LAC · LAC 73% → 83% +10LAC 73% → 83%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -8.5
- ML POR +260 / LAC -320
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 61.1%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -274
- POR +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.5 – 117.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +22 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −43, Robert Williams III −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +78 Elo | LAC 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 112.920th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 108.24th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.0 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 108.84th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 98.923rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 30–114th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15489th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+31 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−43 Elo
- Robert Williams III return to competition reconditioning−2 Elo
Clippers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  POR |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–36 | 51–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 38–30 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 43–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–6 LAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.