Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints21
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Oso IghodaroRebounds6
Clippers- James HardenPoints30
- Chris PaulAssists8
- James HardenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–129
- Q43.2shot clock turnover102–129
- Q427.9Nigel Hayes-Davis makes 15-foot pullup jump shot102–129
- Q449.1Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes driving layup100–129
- Q449.1Yanic Konan Niederhauser offensive rebound100–127
- Q450.2Khaman Maluach blocks Cam Christie 's 11-foot two point shot100–127
- Q41:05Kobe Brown defensive rebound100–127
- Q41:08Khaman Maluach misses free throw 2 of 2100–127
- Q41:08Khaman Maluach makes free throw 1 of 2100–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:02Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)PHX 23 – 17 LAC · LAC 59% → 65% +6LAC 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q14:22Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 27 – 19 LAC · PHX 33% → 40% +6PHX 33% → 40%+6 pts
- Q13:40Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)PHX 28 – 25 LAC · LAC 64% → 70% +6LAC 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q13:13James Harden makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)PHX 28 – 28 LAC · LAC 70% → 76% +6LAC 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q11:15Collin Gillespie makes 29-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 33 – 32 LAC · PHX 21% → 26% +5PHX 21% → 26%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -10.5
- ML PHX +340 / LAC -450
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6
- LAC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 72.6%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -360
- PHX +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 106.5 – 117.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −70 | +5 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +169 Elo | LAC 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 74.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 112.920th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 108.24th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.0 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 108.84th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.923rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–29 | Road vs home | 30–114th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 20th of 301479 | Elo rating | 153811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PHX |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–50 | 51–38 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–25 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 13–25 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 43–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–3 LAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Mar 4LAC 117 @ PHX 119Picked LAC 57%Miss
- Jan 27LAC 109 @ PHX 111Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Oct 31PHX 125 @ LAC 119Picked PHX 62%Hit
- Oct 23PHX 116 @ LAC 113Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Apr 10PHX 124 @ LAC 108Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Apr 9LAC 105 @ PHX 92Picked PHX 65%Miss
- Jan 8PHX 111 @ LAC 138Picked LAC 65%Hit
- Jan 3LAC 131 @ PHX 122Picked LAC 58%Hit