LA Clippers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints19
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds7
Jazz- Walker KesslerPoints22
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- Walker KesslerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–129
- Q414.4Cam Christie makes free throw 2 of 2108–129
- Q414.4Cam Christie makes free throw 1 of 2107–129
- Q414.4Kyle Filipowski shooting foul106–129
- Q432.8Kobe Sanders defensive rebound106–129
- Q432.8Taylor Hendricks misses 23-foot three point jumper106–129
- Q437.0Taylor Hendricks offensive rebound106–129
- Q439.8John Collins blocks Taylor Hendricks 's 2-foot jumper106–129
- Q455.5Kobe Brown makes free throw 2 of 2106–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:58Walker Kessler makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)LAC 5 – 11 UTAH · UTAH 31% → 36% +6UTAH 31% → 36%+6 pts
- Q16:39James Harden makes 29-foot three pointerLAC 12 – 19 UTAH · LAC 54% → 60% +6LAC 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q14:41Walker Kessler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)LAC 14 – 26 UTAH · UTAH 45% → 52% +7UTAH 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q11:18Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 19 – 38 UTAH · LAC 24% → 30% +6LAC 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q29:25Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)LAC 30 – 49 UTAH · LAC 21% → 27% +6LAC 21% → 27%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -10.5
- ML LAC -380 / UTAH +290
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- LAC: Elo 70.9%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -309
- UTAH +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 118.0 – 107.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −14 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +155 Elo | LAC 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 82.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 81.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 111.921st of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 121.230th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −9.328th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 108.924th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 118.030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.9 | Pace | 102.15th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 10–3129th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 30 |
| 8th of 301566 | Elo rating | 138927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  LAC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 51–38 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–22 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders | 43–46 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 6–2 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Feb 13LAC 120 @ UTAH 116Picked LAC 77%Hit
- Feb 8UTAH 110 @ LAC 130Picked LAC 90%Hit
- Dec 16UTAH 107 @ LAC 144Picked LAC 72%Hit
- Nov 17UTAH 105 @ LAC 116Picked LAC 78%Hit
- Apr 12UTAH 110 @ LAC 109Picked LAC 82%Miss
- Apr 5UTAH 102 @ LAC 131Picked LAC 71%Hit
- Dec 8LAC 117 @ UTAH 103Picked LAC 62%Hit
- Oct 27LAC 118 @ UTAH 120Picked UTAH 54%Hit